torsdag 25 juli 2013

Årsmöte med Ofuss



Ett år har gått och det har därför blivit dags igen för Ofuss att ha ett årsmöte. Den här gången blir det i Göteborg och det blir av på Liseberg! Så häng med, den 31 augusti!

Vad kan man förvänta sig av mötet? Niklas Wiklander skrev en bra sammanfattning:
Notera att det här årsmötet inte är som något årsmöte du någonsin varit på. Inga sega genomgångar av årets budget eller valberedningar eller så. Vi bara snackar lite (eller mycket) om ungefär vad vi ska göra med Ofuss fram till nästa sommar, sen åker vi berg-och-dalbana, sen kanske några (eller alla) går nånstans och dricker öl eller nåt liknande. Ju fler likasinnade vi är desto bättre! Så även om du inte varit med i "ledningen" för Ofuss alls, kom och ha kul på Liseberg! Bor du i Göteborg finns det ingen bra anledning alls att inte gå dit.
Hur tiden fördelas mellan diskussion, berg-och-dalbana och att gå på krogen bestäms efter vad folk tycker är rimligt. Ifall du har ett förslag på en kampanj eller något i den stilen skulle det vara jättebra att bara skriva ned några tankar om den, så att folk kan läsa på om det innan. Ta upp det i Ofuss-gruppen på fb eller i eventet.

Choose That Which is Most Important to You



To create your own political world view you need to know about societies and your own political goals/values. In this post I'll discuss the latter, and in the next post the former.

What sort of goals? Those which you wish to achieve for their own sake, and not because they simply are a means to an end. That is, those goals you value intrinsically. Or, if you believe that there exists only one ultimate goal or value, then think of those means which are not that far removed from being intrinsic goal. That is, a birthday party might be just of instrumental value but most would agree that it is more far away from the intrinsic value than, say, good tires. I will for the rest of the post assume that most people value a lot of things intrinsically, and by values I will denote intrinsic values.

So, I'd like to draw a line between values and that which achieve those values. The latter is what we're trying to figure out what they are, without first proposing what they are. Those are political systems, or parts of them; they are institutions and laws. This is not to say that these things cannot be valued for their own sake – I put value on a system, possibly for aesthetic reasons – but those values should be disentangled from the other benefit a system produces.

With that in mind, you should now list all the things you value in ranking order. To rank them is necessary since we live in a world of scarce resources, so you won't necessarily achieve all your goals, but you will want to achieve those that are most important to you.

There are three things to keep in mind here. First that goals can change, but they are still important to know about, even if changing. Secondly that a large incremental step towards completing your fifth political goal might be worth more than a small step towards your first.

To illustrate, here are some examples:
  1. "I wish for world peace."
  2. "That there is no more hunger."
  3. "That every child, everywhere, gets a good education."
  4. "That future generations will be more prosperous or happier than us."
EDIT: Maybe this part of the tutorial is too fast. Instead of just saying what one's preferences are, maybe one should try to discover them in a roundabout manner. This could be done by making a few more lists:

1) All possible systems of preferences. That is, all ways one can arrange every goal one wants to achieve. It should be theoretically limitless, but maybe ethical theories can serve as proxies.

2) Note all reasoning (such as thought experiments) that you are most certain of are true - that is, they yield a result of how you should act which is how you really want to act.

3) Note all reasoning which dismisses the most systems of preferences as not being true, not being what you want.

4) Note possible reasoning which would decide what preferences you really have, if you can determine the question correctly.

Doing this should give you the list above.

onsdag 24 juli 2013

The Domain of Politics

Followup to: How To Construct a Political Ideology

Related to: What Do We Mean By "Rationality"?

Politics is the art of the possible.

The word 'politics' is derived from the Greek word 'poly', meaning many, and the English word 'ticks', meaning blood sucking parasites.

Politics can be inspiring; there have been several groups that have organized to achieve wonderful ends now and in the past. Such as ending slavery, the subjugation of women, and the censorship of ideas. (None of these have, however, been brought to their full completion yet.)

Politics can also be irritating. As when some politician or bureaucrat wastes money or lies in a particularly annoying way, or when the supporters of that politician or that bureau talk about the wonders of politics while ignoring all its bad parts. (Politics can also be horrible and devastating.)

Predictably, some of us who find politics today to be more irritating than inspiring will define politics somewhat differently. For some, politics is ”a relic of a barbaric past” because politics always entails the threat of violence, and if we should ever find ourselves in a better state of affairs, politics will have had nothing to do with it. But many others would contend that wherever there's civic life there's politics – for some that's true even in a stateless society.

So, there's a little disagreement on the definition of politics. For my part, I will use the latter definition, which contends that politics deals with certain areas of life – regarding civic life, elections, war, fund-raising for a cause, influencing cultural norms, establishing alliances and so on. This is almost the same as the definition used by Wiktionary, but it seems to have a broader focus than the one used by Wikipedia. The goal of political action can then be said to be to act rationally in this domain, just as one would act rationally in any other domain.

That definition isn't too detailed, so let me try and give a fuller definition. I will do that by introducing a hypothetical scenario which explores some fundamental political strategies:

You live in a village by a river, and you are interested in building a bridge across it.  But a fisherman also lives in the village and if you'd build the bridge it would make it difficult for him to fish during that time. No one else will be directly effected by this project. You bring up the issue with the fisherman and ask what he thinks about all this.

The fisherman could then have two basic attitudes towards your project: it would  either be a concern for him or it wouldn't. If it is the latter, then you are not in any conflict, but have a (weak) harmonious relationship. All that remains is for you to build the bridge, which I'll discuss later.

First, let's assume that the fisherman opposes your plans. Let us assume that he is willing to physically prevent you from building the bridge. What can you do then, given that you still want to construct the bridge? It seems only these seven general strategies are available:

Persuasion  – You can try to convince the fisherman that it is in his best interest that the bridge be built, or that the construction will not disturb him so much as he believes. That is, convince him that the project will not become problematic for him.

Deceit – You can try to convince the fisherman that the construction won't be problematic, while lying.

Trade - You take his stated preferences, true or not, as given and you offer him something in return for letting you build the bridge.

Threat – You offer to give him something/do something to him which he does not want, if he doesn't let you build the bridge.

Bypass – You ignore the fisherman and try to build the bridge without him knowing about it.

Force – You can try to physically stop him from preventing you to build the bridge. As in, hitting him on the head, poisoning him or locking him up.

Submission - You don't build the bridge.
(There might be other strategies I've missed, but for now it's not necessary to know all fundamental strategies.)

Suppose now that the fisherman doesn't mind at all that you build the bridge. Well then, what happens  now?
Well, either you  want the help of others in doing this or not. If not, there's no more politics. If you do want the help of others, and they are willing to help you, then everything is also settled. But, if they do not want to help you right away, then you can use persuasion, deceit, exchange, threats and force to get them to help you. Or you simply have to acquiesce in them not helping you. Bypassing is not an option here, since that would be pointless.

Each option entails costs, and they could all have too high a cost so that there's no point in going forth with anything.  In that case, it's time to do something else. On the other hand, the cost for each mode of action might be so low that any option is advantageous. In that case the only prudent move is to choose whatever has the lowest cost, the one which let's you pursue and reach the largest number of your most highly valued ends. The point is that not only does an option have costs in money and time but it can also affect any further actions in, at least, two ways. First off, if the action should fail, some, or all, of the other options might become totally improbable to succeed. And secondly, even if the action succeeds, it might have some negative effects in other non-political circumstances, making it less likely to achieve your goals. Thus, the costs worth pondering are the opportunity costs of an action - the loss is what you otherwise could have achieved.

It seems  that every political problem can be seen through the lens of this framework. Both for, loosely speaking, dealing with conflicts and producing values. What about upholding laws that support certain property rights? Well, you can persuade or force those who disagree with the norms to accept them. You can even bargain with them. What about helping those who are addicted to drugs? Same thing, you can either get their consent or choose to force them. Everything can ultimately be seen as how you interact with others.

What does this then tell us about the goal of political action? Well suppose you need to interact with others regarding the bridge-project (either with the fisherman or someone else). You will need to perceive the effects of each path and compare their effects to choose whichever is most beneficial to you.  After that has been solved, that should be the end of politics. But, what does it mean to solve the problem? Well, what goals will be harder to reach if you choose to trick the fisherman into letting you build the bridge? That depends on a lot of circumstances, but, for most villages, I'd guess you lose any chance of being on really good terms with the fisherman, and you'd lose favour with most people in the village (if you weren't already dominant in the village). And what if you'd traded with others to get their help in constructing the bridge? You'd only lost the money, probably.

Now, maybe this doesn't feel like that hard of a problem. But let's suppose that you will face one thousand such scenarios in your life, every one of which are intertwined with each other. That is, you will want to build a bridge, but you may also want to be friends to friends of the fisherman, be on good terms with everyone in the village, be secure in your property rights, help fund the building of a local town hall, change the current law on building-restrictions, support the abolishment of the Bakers' guild, do a whole lot of ordinary things and so on. Now your choice in one area will have to fit with every other area. Or, at least those you care about the most.

All of this calls for you to create a meta-strategy; a grand plan plan so all those small plans are compatible with each other and will produce the most benefit to you. How to make that plan and follow it through is the essence of political choice, it's an essential part of your goal in politics.

To know what plan to choose you need to know two things: (1) what your political values/goals are and (2) what sort of political system (society) would be best in promoting your goals.

If you know everything about your preferences, but nothing about societies, then you can't support any complex system without running the risk of supporting something which is totally detrimental to your values. If you, on the other hand, know everything about how societies function but are, somehow, unable to know what you really want, then you cannot decide what society to strive towards.

The next two posts will discuss these two issues - first goals and thereafter means.

tisdag 23 juli 2013

A Tutorial on Creating a Political Ideology

Jag har tänkt ett tag att man skulle kunna göra politik mer ordnat genom att bara fokusera på de viktigaste frågorna när man väljer vilken politik som verkar bäst och vilka punkter man diskuterar med andra. Målet borde vara att skapa en rationell politisk ideologi som man lättast når sina mål med. Så, jag tänkte jag skulle skriva det här på LessWrong diskussionssida, vilket jag också gjorde. Men, olyckligtvis blev de inläggen utbuade, och därmed får inte jag heller skriva något mer där. Så, de nästa sju inläggen eller så kommer att handla om en ny modell för att tänka om politik. De blir på engelska för att jag redan skrivit ned det redan och för att några lesswrong-are kanske kommer hit och läser. Efter det skall jag ta och presentera min egen politiska filosofi i det här formatet, som då kanske blir mer enkelt att ta till sig och förhoppningsvis kan tjäna som en utgångspunkt för debatter. Kolla även in min sammanfattning av det på Flashback.

How To Construct a Political Ideology
Politics is sometimes hard to discuss. Partly since most of us seem to unconsciously take political matters with the same degree of seriousness as our forefathers used to, because we use the same mode of thought as they used to. Back then, a bad political choice or alliance, could mean death, while the normal cost today in a democratic society might be ridicule for having supported the losing team or position.

Nevertheless, politics should be taken seriously. Bad politics means that it'll take longer for us humans to reach world peace, an end to hunger and disease, and favourable conditions so that no one will create an unfriendly AI. Therefore, discussing  politics is vital so that, someday, some collective actions could be performed to alter the political course for the better.

But what should that collective action be? - what should the new course(s) be? - and who should do it? - and what does "for the better" imply? To engage in politics one needs to be able to give some (implicit or explicit) answers to these questions. This can be done, and in so doing one has constructed a political ideology - which might be similar to existing ideologies or it might be different
.
A political ideology might be constructed in various ways. In this and a few more posts I will propose one way of doing that. These posts might be seen as a tutorial in constructing a political ideology. In these posts I will not suggest an answer to what the best political system should be, nor will I follow my own instructions. But if one should follow these instructions I believe that one can answer the questions mentioned above.

Political ideologies might be constructed in various other ways. The one I discuss in my following posts is based on two principles: (1) that one should not propose an answer until one has thought about the question extensively, and (2) that one should consider the most important questions first.

Before writing the next post, here are the points I will discuss in each of them - I will write the posts as an instruction manual so I'll address you, dear reader, through them out:
  • what is politics, what is the goal of engaging in politics?
  • what are your most highly valued political goals?
  • what facts (and interpretations) can explain most societal features, what facts/interpretations will damn most societies as not ideal?
  • how much does it cost to engage in political action?
  • what are the most important facts concerning political strategies?
  • some thoughts on alliances, representatives and conspiracies.
  • some thoughts on discussing politics generally.

måndag 8 juli 2013

Nu händer det saker med Ofuss

De senaste tre veckorna har jag skrivit tre artiklar för Organisationen för frihetligt utträde ur svenska staten och snart kommer vi förhoppningsvis att kunna få en debattartikel publicerad som når ut till svenska folket. Tills dess, kolla in de här artiklarna som tar upp lite om hur ett utträde skall fungera och varför det är bra:
"Det finns fler potentiella problem som folk kan se med utträde. Dessa behöver dock inte vara verkliga utan kan komma ifrån en ofullständig analys av samhället.

Vårt gemensamma mål, både vi som stöttar utträde och de som är emot, borde vara att ta reda på ifall dessa potentiella problem verkligen stämmer, om de är allvarliga och om de då är värre än alla fördelar som följer av ett utträde, och, om allt tidigare stämmer, dessa problem går att undvika genom en kompromiss som stat och utbrytare når genom förhandling."

"Om frihetligt territoriellt utträde blir inskrivet som en lag i Sverige innebär det att det finns två sätt att göra utträde på.

Antingen att folk gör det enhälligt, att alla som bor på ett område och de som äger marken tillsammans förklarar att området inte längre lyder under svenska staten. Eller att enbart en majoritet av alla invånarna förklarar det som sin åsikt i en folkomröstning.

I båda fall måste invånarna acceptera att de som bor på området skall ha samma rätt att gå ut ur deras politiska ordning, likt invånarna hade rätt att gå ut ur Sverige."

"Politiska institutioner kan alltid göras bättre. Ett uppenbart sätt att förbättra dem på är genom att importera lyckade institutioner från andra länder. Detta är dock svårt att göra i dagens system, då det är så segt, men skulle vara lätt ifall folk fritt fick experimentera med vilken politik de skall leva under.

Några områden där svenskar skulle kunna lära från andra länder är bland annat i skolfrågan, kärnkraftsfrågan och näringslivspolitik. Vi har alltid mycket att lära av andra och vi borde satsa på att låta folk försöka skapa bättre former för samarbete."

torsdag 4 juli 2013

Väljare som vänder kappan efter makten

Pew polls reveal that switching from a Republican to a Democratic president causes Republican enthusiasm for NSA surveillance programs to fall by 23 percentage points – and likewise causes Democratic enthusiasm for NSA surveillance programs to rise by 27 percentage points.
Samtidigt så ökade stödet för övervakningen bland "Independents" med 9%, vilket skulle kunna vara för att fler där gillar Obama, men också för att läget i USA blivit mer övervakningsvänligt. Om vi utgår från att alla som ändrat åsikt gjort det oavsett vem som var president så får man dra av 9%-enheter från demokraterna och lägga till samma summa på hur många republikaner som ändrade åsikt bara för att en annan person var vid makten.

I slutändan är resultatet, oavsett vad, rätt bedrövligt. Men, politik handlar inte mest om praktiska frågor utan nog mer om att signallera sitt stöd till den grupp man ser som sin egen.

tisdag 2 juli 2013

Special Economic Zones - En rapport från Världsbanken

Shenshen, arketypen för en lyckad ekonomisk frizon.
2008 skrevs rapporten Special Economic Zones: Performance, Lessons learned and Implications for Zone Development av FIAS, en del av Världsbanken. Titeln är rätt självförklarande och innehållet är väldigt positivt för oss som önskar ha mer decentralisering och frihet. Detta då dessa zoner (SEZs) har varit väldigt bra ekonomiskt sett.

Så, hur bra då? Jo, det har gjorts ett stort antal undersökningar hur det har gått för dessa zoner i u-länder och enligt rapportens sammanfattning har utvecklingen av dessa zoner lett till:
  • Ökad sysselsättning, särskilt för kvinnor som precis börjar arbeta.
  • Ökade exporter.
  • Ökade kapitalinvesteringar från utlandet.
  • Högre löner och bättre jobsituation än i vanliga ekonomin, dock har vissa anmärkt på att dessa ändå skulle varit dåliga.
Detta gäller forskning om zoner som utvecklats av staten, men det finns områden som utvecklats av privata intressen. 62% av de 2,301 zoner som finns i utvecklingsländer runtom världen är privata. Överlag har dessa varit billigare att driva, mer lönsamma och har lett till bättre sociala och miljöskyddande resultat än de statliga zonerna. Zonerna som drivs i sydost-asiatiska länder utgör ett undantag från den här regeln.

Vad kan man då lära sig ifrån de experiment med SEZs som gjorts? Rapporten listar några saker som inneburit hinder för många zoner:
  • Dåligt läge, vilket medför höga utlägg.
  • Politik som sätter konkurrensen ur spel.
  • Dålig uppbyggnad av zonen.
  • Subvention av hyra och andra tjänster.
  • Betyngande regler och kontroller.
  • Dålig administrativ struktur eller för många myndigheter som är involverade i administrationen.
  • Dålig koordination mellan de privata utvecklingsentreprenörerna och den statliga administrationen av infrastrukturprojekt.
Rapporten menar att dålig koordination i allmänhet ligger bakom många av dessa problem. Om en zon undviker dessa problem verkar det dock kunna gå rätt så bra. Rapporten tar upp lite god politik som gör det mer troligt att en zon lyckas:
  • Tillåt SEZ-företag och vanliga företag att finnas på samma plats.
  • Se till att styret av zonen är flexibel och att den tillåter en rad sorters kommersiella aktiviteter.
  • Uppmuntra privat byggande istället för statligt byggande av zonen.
  • Ha goda rättsliga strukturer.
  • Frihandel och mindre regleringar för att få göra handel.
Så, frihet och decentralisering är riktigt goda saker. Slutligen går det att nämna att dessa projekt i regel verkar vara positiva även för statens ekonomi. Det är i sig inte något positivt, men det är positivt för att andra stater skall kunna etablera dessa zoner.

Rapporten tar upp tre scenarior där en SEZ inte är lönsam för staten: om bygget av zonen kräver massa statliga utgifter, ifall zonen inte drivs med åtanke att återbörda kostnaderna och ifall den får stöd för el eller andra tjänster. Så, lite briljerande skulle man kunna säga att statlig framgång kommer genom att inte stötta medan framgång för zonen kommer av att staten inte stör den.

Kolla annars in utvecklingen av Shenzhen från fiskeby till metropol på bara drygt 20 år.